Built for coaches · Trained on NFL and college play-by-play data
If you pick from the top of our list, you are nearly twice as likely to stay on schedule. That means getting the yards you need on that play. We do not call the play for you. We sort your menu for this down, distance, and field.
When you follow our ranking · 3,299 plays we never trained on
Nearly twice as likely to stay on schedule
Our top picks stayed on schedule 62% of the time. Our bottom picks: only 32%. That gap is why following the ranking matters.
On-schedule rate by how we ranked them
We split every play we held out into four equal groups by our ranking before the snap. The bars show how often each group stayed on schedule. The league average on these plays is 45.6%. Take any two plays: our ranking names the better one 63.6% of the time (a coin flip would be 50%). So the order is real. The big claim is the jump in the bars when you follow the top of the list.
Calibration
If we say a play has about a 40% chance to stay on schedule, does it really happen about 40% of the time? When the two columns are close, our odds match real life. We are not only saying "higher is better."
| We said | It happened | Plays |
|---|---|---|
| 19.6% | 25.2% | 330 |
| 32.3% | 35.8% | 330 |
| 36.7% | 37.6% | 330 |
| 40.1% | 42.4% | 330 |
| 43.5% | 38.9% | 329 |
| 47.1% | 49.4% | 330 |
| 50.3% | 46.1% | 330 |
| 54.0% | 52.7% | 330 |
| 58.5% | 57.6% | 330 |
| 72.2% | 70.6% | 330 |
You still call it
We score every call for this down, distance, and field. You still pick. We show which ones stay on schedule more.
The ranking works
Bottom picks stayed on schedule 32% of the time. Top picks: 62%. Same 3,299 plays we never trained on.
It moves the chains
Not later in the drive. This play. Bottom picks got a first down 10% of the time. Top picks: 55%.
